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Annual Outlook for 2012

Annual rainfall in Hong Kong

Normal to below normal
(between 1900 and 2500 mm)

Number of tropical cyclones
entering 500 km of Hong Kong

Normal to above normal 
(5 to 8)

Note:

1. The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500 km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.

2. The Observatory will assess the situation around mid-year based on the latest available data, and provide update of the annual outlook as appropriate.




   Related links:
   Seasonal forecast       El Nino and La Nina
   Climate change

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